Domestic oil price increases or delayed chasing bulls

&Nbsp;    Iran nuclear report, a weak dollar and the latest positive economic data support, international oil prices continue to surge in the near future, setting the longest winning record in two years. Led by this, several agencies monitor the three to the red line oil change rate has exceeded 4%. The industry is expected, prices may go higher this week, March 8, retail up time window will open. However price may be delayed until late March. Domestic oil product prices is bullish and reluctant to appear.

     24th closing, the benchmark New York oil futures have been rising for seven consecutive trading days, light, sweet crude for April delivery rose US $ 1.94 to close at 109.77 dollars a barrel, hit a 9-month high. The week, oil prices in New York Rose $ 6.53, or 6.33%, or 11% per cent over last year's total. Meanwhile, London's Brent crude oil futures for April delivery rose 1.85 dollars to close at 125.47 dollars a barrel, was its highest price since April 29, rose 5.89 dollars all week, or 4.93%.  

     of international crude oil prices continued to rise, will try for three oil changes rapidly to 4% price red line above. Treasure Island according to bulk products e-commerce platform to provide data, as of February 24, when daily average crude oil prices of the three $ 124.210 a barrel, nearly 22-day moving average price of $ 116.947 a barrel, on February 7 benchmark rose 4.37%. Calculation rate of three oil changes of Woo information has also reached 4.5%, card Wang energy measuring three to change more, is 5.04%.  

     under current oil price adjustment mechanism, when Brent, Dubai and Cinta 22 working days in a row of three crude oil at the moving average price changes over 4%, the domestic fuel prices will be adjusted. Starting from the February 8 the State development and Reform Commission raised its domestic fuel retail prices, to reach 22 working days by March 8, when the domestic oil price hike will officially open the window.  

     However, the treasure island, Yu information and making Wang agencies such as the energy analysis, taking into account the "two sessions" factors, pricing or as a general rule be delayed until late March. Last price, national development and Reform Commission made it clear that was appropriate to postpone the adjustment time for Lantern Festival.  

     as a country over dependence on foreign crude oil 56%, the sharp rise in international oil prices will no doubt have a great impact on China's economic development. CMS news analyst Shen Tao pointed out that sharply higher crude oil prices would directly increase domestic refinery refinery costs, in order to avoid excessive losses of domestic refineries, it is necessary to adjust the domestic retail prices of oil products. But the rise in oil prices have a direct impact on the healthy development of China's logistics industry, increased domestic consumption of gasoline and diesel costs, adding to inflationary pressures.  

     "increase the time window opens, three oil changes or will have to rise from 6% to 8%, if the Commission decided to postpone the increases in retail prices of refined oil products, it will raise domestic refining cost pressures, as well as doubling of the expected gains. "Shen Tao said.  

     Lin boqiang, Director of the Centre for energy economics research at Xiamen University believes that in accordance with the current situation in the International crude oil is likely to remain high, above $ 110 a barrel. When it is not up to us $ 120 per barrel, there are still room to continue to raise domestic fuel prices, but more than US $ 120 a barrel, domestic price pressures will soon be apparent increase will be limited.  

     although the price adjustment window open for some time, but domestic oil market sentiment has begun to feel a certain drive, prices rise. Blended oil is sensitive to oil prices rally more obvious, according to blend oil traders in southern China reaction, harmonic materials are hard to find on the market in the near future, prices continue to rise, driven cooking oil prices rising and help Southern China's main national gasoline prices, price increases ranged from 50 Yuan to 100 Yuan/ton.  

     below the bullish expectations, reluctant to appear. "Some areas even with the concessions, is also very limited, and it can take big, local area or even stop batch control pins. "Treasure island He Jieying, an analyst said.  

     in addition, speculative demand began to heat up. Card flourishing energy analysis report states that some oil station already plans to hoard oil, but due to the high wholesale price of diesel in most parts, refined oil consumption still weak and the current market situation, so most social station is still in a State of wait-and-see. And because diesel zero recovery in demand and prices in some areas are still hanging upside down because, recent oil diesel over prices intensified.  

     Yu Wang Jintao information analyst estimates, domestic refinery settlement cost of crude oil continues to surge in the next month, products and raw materials prices will be supported by the high cost of naphtha price is likely 500 Yuan/ton soared for solvents oil and chemical industry as a whole form a strong pull. In the case of naphtha prices, oil product retail price fixed, main refineries may readjust the process, encourage naphtha production, product yield or affected, further from the supply and demand on the Chinese oil market. If the oil price hike postponed to the end of March, due to the warm weather, transportation and infrastructure engineering, spring, stimulated, domestic market and gradually start, coupled with refinery maintenance curtain opened, beginning in March oil market is likely to face a wave of rising prices.

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